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Best Supporting Actor Prediction: Troy Kotsur could become the 2nd deaf person to win an Oscar

Troy Kotsur and Kodi Smit-McPhee are the only ones who have been nominated at every critical precursor
Credit: AP
This combination photo shows Oscar nominees for best supporting actor, from left, Ciarán Hinds in "Belfast," Troy Kotsur in "CODA," Jesse Plemons in "The Power of the Dog," J.K. Simmons in "Being the Ricardos," and Kodi Smit-McPhee in "The Power of the Dog." (Focus Features/Apple/Netflix/Amazon/Netflix via AP)

LOS ANGELES — Kodi Smit-McPhee was the one to beat this year in the Best Supporting Actor race, besting even his also nominated co-star Jesse Plemons. However, the momentum has swung to Troy Kotsur.

McPhee was nominated for his role in "The Power of the Dog." If he takes home the win, he would be the second youngest winner in the category's history. 

However, Kotsur is now the favorite heading into the Oscars. ABC10's Mark S. Allen originally had McPhee as the likely winner, but Kotsur's recent momentum is too strong to deny, evening taking home a Critic's Choice Award last week along with a BAFTA award for his role.

Ciaran Hinds missed out on a Screen Actors Guild nod, likely due to a voter split with his co-star Jamie Dornan. 

Kotsur and McPhee are the only ones who have been nominated at every critical precursor. Kotsur's rising star is exactly like that of another compelling deaf community story turned feature film, Paul Raci's campaign for "Sound of Metal" in 2021. 

The final nominee in this category is J.K. Simmons, but the nomination is probably the win for him this year. Despite getting the honor for "Whiplash" a few years ago, his take on Fred in "Being the Ricardos" is the peak.

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The 2022 Oscars nominations for Best Picture are "The Power of the Dog," "Don't Look Up," "Dune," "West Side Story," "Belfast," "CODA," "Licorice Pizza," "Drive My Care," "Nightmare Alley," and "King Richard." These are the best movies the past year had to offer and the 94th Academy Awards will determine which one comes out on top.

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