SACRAMENTO, Calif. — As the coronavirus pandemic continues to grow in California, many residents are worrying when the infections will peak in the state.
ABC10 has heard different dates from various cities, counties, and even Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has publicly stated that California’s peak will come in mid-May.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, an independent research center at the University of Washington, predicts Monday, April 13 could be the peak of the outbreak in terms of resource use in the state. The center projected the peak in daily deaths will occur on Wednesday, April 15.
But what do these dates mean for you? Sacramento County officials say the exact dates don’t matter because every city, county, and even state has different models and projections.
Regardless, Sacramento County agrees the heaviest load for seriously ill patients will come at the end of April and it has enough personal protective equipment (PPE) for the current need, county spokesperson Samantha Mott said.
“Additionally the CEO's for the health systems within the county have publicly stated they are comfortable with their current level of PPE,” she added. “As needs are identified the county continues to order additional PPE."
According to Peter Beilenson, Sacramento County Public Health Director, the county has enough hospital beds to handle up to 600 cases at a time. Hospitals are reporting they don't have as many ventilators as they may need, but that doesn't mean there's a shortage.
As of April 10, two dozen people have died and 653 were infected. However, there is some good news for the county, because despite the high number of cases, Sacramento should escape what New York, Seattle, and Los Angeles are facing, he said.
In Placer County, health officials say it's hard to know when the peak will hit, but it could come anywhere between May and August. The county health director has publicly stated she fears the three main hospitals could be hit beyond capacity. County officials are not forecasting when the peak caseload might happen.
Similar to Placer, health officials in Yolo County say limited testing hasn't allowed them to determine when and how long a surge may last.
Data from the IHME shows there’s no shortage of PPE in California for the expected peak of resource use. There are more than 26,000 beds available and almost 2,000 ICU beds available. The organization is also projecting that 668 ventilators will be needed.
The IHME also projects 66 coronavirus-related deaths in the state on Wednesday, April 15.
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