SACRAMENTO COUNTY, Calif. — Staying at home, social distancing, washing hands and wearing a mask has all been a part of the effort to slow the curve of the novel coronavirus.
According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, the peak in California is estimated to be around April 14. The move up from previous days was telling to some medical professionals, like Placer County Health Director Dr. Aimee Sisson.
"I think it just exemplifies the nature of these models, and I liken it to weather forecasting," said Sisson.
According to Sisson, peaking is an estimation between the number of people infected with COVID-19, the medical resources available and deaths. While the IHME and University of Washington’s model predicts April 14 for all of California, counties differ on a case-by-case basis.
That's why local hospitals are using their own models from Penn State and Stanford. So, when are counties in our area expected to peak? We spoke with medical professionals and officials from each to find out.
In all, many doctors pushed the fact that all models being used are subject to change depending on how well people in each county continue to social distance.
As for post-peak, things are not expected to return to normal immediately.
Doctor Sisson said the first step towards "recovery" in regards to returning to normalcy will first have to be seen a decrease in cases.
"The second piece of what would have to happen to emerge from lockdown is to have the capability to test every single person with symptoms," said Sisson. "We are a ways from returning to normal life, even when cases start to decrease."
Below are the counties' responses.
SACRAMENTO COUNTY
"Sacramento has been keeping up more or less with what’s been happening in the Bay Area," said Sacramento Public Health Official Dr. Olivia Kasirye. "Right now [our models] estimate that [our peak], which is very similar to the state, is probably by the end of April – but this is an estimate. Nothing is definitive."
Kasirye said models are showing Sacramento County’s peak will be in mid to late April.
PLACER COUNTY
"These models ask you questions about how well you think people have been social distancing," said Dr. Sisson.
That's why each model is specific to every county, dependent on how well people have been social distancing, Sisson explained.
She said their latest models predict peaking in late April to mid May. However, Sisson pushed the fact that models are all dependent on the public’s ability to continue social distancing, staying home and wearing masks.
"This is why the governor, when he talks about models he says that our behavior determines our fate," said Sisson.
SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY
With the most specific data released among local counties, San Joaquin specifically named April 30 with 768 positive COVID-19 patients. They noted that this was if people refused or lessened their social distancing and efforts to keep the curve low.
However, if people continue to adhere by recommendations, they expect their peak to be pushed back to May 30 with 299 positive COVID-19 patients.
EL DORADO COUNTY
El Dorado County Director of Communication and Outreach, Carla B. Hass, released the following statement when asked about estimated peak and efforts: "We are looking at several different models, but because they are all so varied in outcome (and, thankfully, we don't have large numbers at the moment) we don't find them to be particularly useful to El Dorado County in pinpointing a peak time right now."
YOLO COUNTY
Yolo County released the following statement when asked about their estimated peak and efforts calculating it: "There are many academic models which predict different peak dates. There will be geographic variation when the peak of cases occurs based on many variables, not the least of which is when stay at home orders were issued and how seriously the local population adhered to the orders. The majority of the people of Yolo County have risen to the occasion and remain at home and practice social distancing. The bottom line is that the health care systems and public health in Yolo County are prepared for a surge of COVID-19 sick people whenever the surge occurs."
Follow the conversation on Facebook with Andie Judson.
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