CALIFORNIA, USA — As Democrats in California and across the country scramble to decide if they want President Joe Biden to remain in the race, a concerned U.S. Rep. Mike Levin of San Juan Capistrano had two options: Speak out, or hold back.
Both were the wrong choice in the eyes of the Republicans seeking to unseat him in November in one of California’s swingiest districts.
When Levin initially held his tongue on Biden’s future after a disastrous June 27 debate performance, the National Republican Congressional Committee blasted his “deafening” silence. And when Levin publicly called for Biden to drop out — the only California Democrat from a battleground district to do so yet — his GOP opponent Matt Gunderson deemed it a “sudden” tactic to distance himself from Biden.
Tying Democrats to an increasingly unpopular president who now faces backlash within his own party, Republicans have seized onto the Democratic splinters over Biden as an opportunity to attack their opponents in key California congressional districts, where election outcomes hinge largely on voter turnout and could help decide which party controls the U.S. House, as they did for the GOP in 2022.
The pressure on swing district Democrats is only intensifying as a growing coalition of Democrats — many of whom are from California — are calling for Biden’s exit, not only worried that he can’t win in November, but that he will drag down House and Senate candidates with him.
On Wednesday, Rep. Adam Schiff of Burbank, who is running for the U.S. Senate, urged Biden to “pass the torch” and step aside. His public declaration followed a warning to donors at a Saturday fundraiser that Biden could cost Democrats both the Senate and the House, the New York Times reported.
“A second Trump presidency will undermine the very foundation of our democracy, and I have serious concerns about whether the president can defeat Donald Trump in November,” Schiff told the Los Angeles Times.
Others are working behind the scenes. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco has reportedly conducted private calls with House Democrats and talked with the president to nudge Biden out of the race. Democratic leaders Rep. Hakeem Jeffries and Sen. Chuck Schumer also told Biden that his candidacy would jeopardize Democrats’ numbers in Congress. And as some Biden loyalists tried to fast-track the confirmation of the president as the party nominee, a group of House Democrats drafted a letter — circulated by Rep. Jared Huffman of San Rafael — to oppose that plan.
In nine key congressional districts in California, most Democratic candidates have remained silent on what they believe Biden should do. The campaigns of Adam Gray (Merced), Rudy Salas (Bakersfield), Josh Harder (Tracy), Derek Tran (Garden Grove), Joe Kerr (Coto de Caza), George Whitesides (Santa Clarita), Will Rollins (Palm Springs) and Dave Min (Irvine) did not return CalMatters’ inquiry for comment this week.
Levin’s campaign also declined to comment, referring to his July 12 statement in which he called on Biden to “pass the torch” and said “it’s time to move forward with a new leader.”
Despite the mounting pressure for Biden to drop out, the final decision still lies with the president, who has repeatedly vowed to remain in the race.
He may only have to hold off the opposition for a few more weeks: While the Democratic National Convention doesn’t begin until Aug. 19, party leaders said Wednesday they are moving ahead with a “virtual roll call” that could cement Biden’s nomination and make it extremely difficult to replace him at the convention. But they also said the virtual roll call wouldn’t begin before Aug. 1 — slowing down the process enough to reportedly convince Huffman not to pursue the letter to stop it.
“Ultimately, I think this is the situation: Biden steps down on his own, or he’s the party’s nominee. I don’t think any scenario that involves Democratic delegates shifting en masse away from him is going to happen,” said Jeffery Jenkins, a public policy and political science professor at the University of Southern California. “There are too many coordination and collective action problems for that to occur.”
Influence on swing districts?
Presidential races are traditionally the main driving force for voter turnout. But what happens to that turnout if you have an unpopular candidate at the top of the ticket?
A widespread lack of enthusiasm among Democratic voters for Biden could cause headaches for down-ballot candidates. Nearly two-thirds of Democrats do not want Biden as their presidential nominee, according to a poll released Wednesday by the Associated Press and research organization NORC at the University of Chicago.
“If there’s an enthusiasm issue with Biden, that could impact Democrats coming out, period, which could impact down-ballot races,” said Mindy Romero, founder and director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy at the University of Southern California.
On the other hand, after surviving an assassination attempt, Trump has likely rallied the Republican vote firmly behind him, said GOP strategist Chris Faulkner. “No single event has done more to solidify his support amongst Republicans and other voters than that singular minute of time,” he said.
Paul Mitchell, a political consultant and vice president of voter data firm Political Data Inc., said pollsters working in competitive districts told him fewer respondents said they’d support Biden after his debate performance.
Levin “is in a district where he could face a real challenge if the Democratic turnout plummets in California,” Mitchell said. In 2022, Levin won by 5 percentage points over Republican Brian Maryott.
And if enough Democratic voters are turned off by Biden, usually safe Democratic districts could become competitive, Mitchell argued.
But for many Americans in today’s polarized political environment, few events — not even the assassination attempt on Trump or Biden’s debate performance — will change how they vote in November, Mitchell said.
“We live in a world of vegetarians who will only eat non-meat products and absolute carnivores that will only eat meat. And just changing one little thing, is it going to get a bunch of vegetarians to go get a hamburger?”
Mike Madrid, a longtime GOP consultant and co-founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, agreed, saying that Biden’s dipping popularity “doesn’t change voting behavior one iota” because Democrats who are frustrated with his performance will still vote against Trump in November.
“They are not for their own party as much as they are against the other party,” Madrid said, citing a FiveThirtyEight forecast model simulator that’s now giving Biden a 54% chance of winning compared to Trump’s 46%.
The frustration with Biden also does not necessarily mean down-ballot Democrats would suffer, Madrid argued. Republican congressional candidates in Orange County largely outperformed Trump in 2016. In 2020, Biden won the county, but Republicans gained two competitive House seats that year.
“That tells us … the voters are very methodical, and they are paying attention,” Madrid said. “This idea of coattails is a misnomer.”
And in a poll released Wednesday night by the Public Policy Institute of California, 62% of likely voters said they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their House race, and the Democrat led 63% to 36% overall in 10 competitive districts.
Silent on Biden
So far, most Democratic officials remain tight-lipped about Biden, especially swing-district candidates. For many, it is partly because they have little sway, some political experts argued.
“What’s the benefit of speaking out especially if you don’t feel as though you are going to be able to effectively move the lever?” Mitchell said. “All it would cause is potential risk of being on the outs if Biden does stay in, and now you’ve made a stance that you almost can’t retract.”
Members of Congress who publicly push for Biden’s exit could also face backlash from other Democrats loyal to Biden, said Faulkner, the GOP strategist.
“I don’t think there’s a whole lot of political gain in asking Biden to step down,” Faulkner said.
“I think the pragmatic decision for most (Democrats), especially in the swing districts, is just keep your powder dry, keep your aim focused on Trump, and tie whoever the Republican candidate is as close to Donald Trump as you can.”
In purple districts, where candidates must raise a lot of money to be competitive, they cannot afford to upset either Biden’s faithful donors or those who have threatened to withhold money unless the president withdraws, said Christian Grose, professor of political science at University of Southern California.
“Anybody in a swing district is going to need all the financial support they can get,” he said.
CalMatters Capitol reporter Sameea Kamal contributed to this story.
This article was originally published by CalMatters.
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