SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Months of campaigning, reams of mailers, millions of dollars in spending and a handful of fiery candidate debates have all culminated to this: Today is the last day voters can turn in their ballots for California’s primary election.
On the table for Californians are two major decisions: The top two candidates for U.S. Senate, and whether to overhaul mental health policy through Proposition 1.
With Rep. Adam Schiff leading the polls, Democratic Rep. Katie Porter and Republican Steve Garvey are jockeying for second place. But who will go on to November may come down to three factors: campaign cash, voter turnout and former President Donald Trump, writes CalMatters politics reporter Yue Stella Yu.
Schiff consistently has had the biggest war chest throughout the election. Though Porter has more cash on hand than Garvey, Politico reported in February that she had to sell her fundraising list to raise more cash.
Another challenge for Porter is a projected “historically low” turnout, particularly among young voters, which may hurt her odds while boosting Garvey’s.
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And despite Trump staying quiet about the race, his name frequently comes up in Schiff’s campaign ads as he attempts to fire up Democrats and to promote Garvey among Republicans, and over Porter, by painting Garvey as a strong supporter of the former president.
Meanwhile, as the state’s mental health and homelessness crises continue to mount, Gov. Gavin Newsom has billed Prop. 1 as a measure that will get “people off the streets, out of tents and into treatment.”
As CalMatters health reporter Kristen Hwang explains, the dual measure would reroute funding to housing for people with behavioral health needs, and would allow the state to borrow billions to pay for supportive housing units and treatment beds.
Proponents of the ballot measure have raised nearly $21 million, and have the support of law enforcement groups, major health care organizations and the mental health advocacy group NAMI California. Opponents include those who are concerned that Prop. 1 will cut funding for current programs, as well as the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association and the League of Women Voters of California.
Recently, Prop. 1’s chances of passing — though still likely — have slimmed somewhat. A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll out Friday showed support down to 50% among likely voters, with 34% opposed and 16% undecided.
To keep up to date on both issues as ballots are counted today, read Stella’s story on the Senate race and Kristen’s piece on Prop. 1.
Turnout trending up? As of Monday, nearly 3.2 million ballots had been returned out of the 22 million sent to every registered voter in the state. That equates to a 14% voter turnout so far. The number that politicos are watching: 31%, the lowest turnout in a recent presidential primary, in 2012. The highest turnout is among voters older than 65, at 32%, compared to just 4% for 18- to 34-year-olds, according to Political Data.
Remember: Your ballot will be counted as long as it’s turned in or postmarked by today. In-person polling sites are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. You can find locations here.
Trump stays on ballot: Any plausible possibility of Trump getting kicked off California’s November ballot ended Monday at the U.S. Supreme Court.
The high court unanimously ruled in a Colorado case that states can’t remove presidential candidates from their ballots. State Sen. Dave Min, an Irvine Democrat who is running for Congress this year, introduced a bill to bar Trump because of his involvement in the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. But Secretary of State Shirley Weber included Trump in the certified list of candidates for the primary, and Gov. Newsom disagreed with Min and others, saying: “We defeat candidates at the polls.”
CalMatters.org is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media venture explaining California policies and politics.
GO DEEPER: Get everything you need to know about the March 5 Primary Election in California and Sacramento region with the To the Point with Alex Bell election special.
