SACRAMENTO, Calif. — This story was originally published by CalMatters.
It took months of haggling over the details, but the debate between Gavin Newsom and Ron DeSantis is really happening. They’ll go at it tonight (6 p.m. in California, 9 p.m. in Florida), live on Fox News from Alpharetta, Ga., moderated by Sean Hannity and without a studio audience.
The 90-minute made-for-TV event (the two governors are not actually running against each other for anything) could be substantive and focused on issues. Or it could descend into name-calling: In June, Newsom slammed DeSantis as “you small, pathetic man.”
And while they’ll spar about many issues, they’ll spend time bragging about their home state — and trolling the other’s.
In a fundraising video this month for his presidential campaign, Republican DeSantis called California “the petri dish for American leftism,” while Florida is the “model for revival, a model based on freedom.”
Democrat Newsom hit back with a TV ad that started airing in Florida on Nov. 19 accusing DeSantis of making criminals of women seeking an abortion by signing a ban after six weeks of pregnancy. “That’s not freedom. That’s Ron DeSantis’s Florida,” Newsom says in the ad, which shows a “Wanted” poster with images of women and physicians.
But how much of what the governors say will be supported by the facts? How do California and Florida really stack up?
California’s population drop over the past few years has given new ammunition to a common conservative criticism: The state’s high taxes and cost of living are driving people away.
“People vote with their feet,” Ron DeSantis told Fox News in June, suggesting that California is “hemorrhaging wealth” and residents to Florida because of its low tax and debt burden. (The number of Californians moving to Florida is relatively small but growing.)
California is undoubtedly expensive. Per capita spending last year on housing, utilities, health, care, food and gasoline was the fourth-highest in the country, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis — behind only Washington, D.C., Massachusetts and Alaska.
But Florida is not substantially cheaper. It ranks 14th for per capita spending on these basics, with the average Floridian paying about 8% less last year than the average Californian. Rising housing costs and a collapsing insurance market are contributing to a growing affordability crisis in Florida as well.
The governors of the Golden State and the Sunshine State don’t agree on much, but their states have at least one thing in common: Their sources of tax revenue are under pressure.
Many economists foresee a slowdown and possibly a national recession in 2024, though some of them say they expect California and Florida to fare better than the nation. Nevertheless, residents of both states are worried about their personal finances, jobs and inflation, some polls show.
Tech firms and other companies are continuing to cut jobs in California, which faces a budget deficit and relies heavily on personal income taxes for revenue. But there’s hope: After months of slow job growth, California led the nation in jobs added in October with 40,200. That represented 26.8% of all U.S. nonfarm payroll jobs added for the month.
California’s unemployment rate inched up from 4.7% in September to 4.8% in October.
Florida’s unemployment rate is 2.8%, and the national unemployment rate is 3.9%.
Florida does not have a state income tax and is largely dependent on tourism tax revenue. That revenue is under pressure because of the state’s politics, though the state says the number of visitors to the state shows it’s doing just fine.
New laws, including those that restrict abortion rights and school curriculums, have led to travel advisories and convention cancellations amid accusations that Florida is hostile to members of the LGBTQ community, women, people of color and immigrants. As part of the culture wars going on in the state, Gov. Ron DeSantis also is sparring with Disney, a huge source of jobs and revenue. A recently released Disney-backed study says the Walt Disney World Resort generated more than $40 billion in economic activity in the state in 2022.
By Jeanne Kuang
Yes. It’s true by every measure.
California and Florida have the nation’s highest and third-highest unhoused populations, respectively. That makes sense — it matches both states’ overall population rankings.
But with more than 171,000 unhoused people in California in 2022, the Golden State has a much higher rate: about 44 out of every 10,000 residents are without a home. That’s more than three and a half times the rate of residents experiencing homelessness in Florida, according to federal data.
And in Florida, more than half of unhoused residents are living in some kind of shelter, while two-thirds of unhoused Californians live outside.
Homelessness in Florida has actually declined by more than 50% since peaking in 2010. Through the first two years of the pandemic, the homeless count in Florida fell from more than 27,000 in 2020 to just under 26,000 in 2022, while in California it has grown steadily to a record high.
Homelessness is driven primarily by the inability to afford a home. While it’s cheaper to build housing in Florida and there’s generally more undeveloped land, growth in both population and housing costs in the Sunshine State are warning signs about its so-far positive trends in reducing homelessness.
A report by the National Low Income Housing Coalition showed in 2021, Florida had more available housing units for middle- and low-income households than California. But both states faced nearly equally dire shortages in the number of housing units that are affordable to the poorest renters: There were only 23 for every 100 of those families in Florida, and 24 in California.
In both states, too, cities have ramped up efforts to restrict encampments and panhandling. In California, though, those local laws are sometimes curbed by a 2018 federal court ruling in an Idaho case that is binding on Western states, prohibiting cities from banning camping if homeless residents have no other place to go.
In one corner you have Gavin Newsom, who boasts regularly about California beating its goals for new electric car and truck sales. Who told a United Nations panel during New York Climate week this year that “this climate crisis is a fossil fuel crisis.” Whose attorney general announced a massive lawsuit against big oil companies over climate change.
In the opposing corner sits the man from the Everglades, Ron DeSantis, who rolled out a national energy strategy in September that would repeal President Biden’s electric car subsidies. A plan that would “support Americans' right to drive the cars they want.” A plan by a governor, who in a September Fox News interview, accused Democrats of trying to “politicize the weather.”
The differences are pretty stark.
California will ban the sale of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035. California has set aside $52.3 billion to prepare the state for climate change. And this year, the governor signed a first-in-the-nation climate bill that would force big companies — from Amazon to Bank of America to WalMart — to reveal their complete carbon footprint.
DeSantis, meanwhile, has pledged to “prevent California and faceless bureaucrats from setting America's environmental standards,” according to his energy policy. He signed a law eliminating “the corporatist environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) movement,” promising to do the same nationally if elected president.
While Newsom recently went on a climate change themed trip to China, DeSantis has said he would withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Climate Accords, the Global Methane Pledge and all net-zero commitments.
One talking point that Republicans in the Golden State often make: California has among the highest gasoline prices in the nation, a major drag on the state’s consumers, particularly its lower-income families.
Both states are experiencing more severe weather that experts have linked to climate change: Miami, for instance, has seen its streets flooded with seawater with more frequency, attributed to rising sea levels, and Florida has been hit with more severe hurricanes. California, meanwhile, has seen its own cycles of climate-intensified wildfires, droughts and floods.
By Carolyn Jones and Mikhail Zinshteyn
Culture wars have erupted at colleges and local school boards in both California and Florida, and both governors have been outspoken in their response. But while Ron DeSantis has encouraged book bans, anti-LGBTQ policies and a crackdown on race-related curriculum, Gavin Newsom has taken the opposite approach.
When the Temecula Unified school board voted in May to ban a textbook that referenced gay rights icon Harvey Milk, Newsom called them “radicalized zealots” and threatened to send the textbooks directly to students and bill the district.
DeSantis, by contrast, signed bills that prohibit teachers from discussing gender identity or sexual orientation in the classroom, ban gender-affirming care for minors and restrict the use of preferred pronouns in schools. Despite pushback from LGBTQ rights organizations and others who said the law would harm students, DeSantis was defiant. "I don't care what Hollywood says. I don't care what big corporations say. Here I stand. I am not backing down," he said.
DeSantis also signed a bill that restricts how teachers can address history and race. California, meanwhile, has expanded education related to race by requiring an ethnic studies class for all high schoolers.
On the test score front, California lags slightly behind Florida in reading and math, but both states are near the national average. California spends significantly more per student — $16,300 a year — than Florida, which is near the bottom at $11,800.
How to regulate public higher education is also a major difference between Desantis and Newsom. Consistent with his war on “wokeness,” DeSantis has pushed for legislation that limits what professors can teach in their classrooms. That’s been pilloried as a major violation of academic freedom.
DeSantis also pushed through a 2023 law to have tenured professors undergo a review every five years and limit how faculty can appeal personnel decisions. Tenure typically protects professors from political pressure. Academics say the new law would further chill free speech among professors.
Newsom, meanwhile, hasn’t fought tenure or academic freedom — which are highly valued by labor unions, groups that are major supporters of Democrats in California. He’s supportive of diversity efforts, while DeSantis banned public campuses from funding diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives. Newsom has also made higher-education spending a priority. In 2018, California spent about $3,000 more per student than Florida. In 2022, it grew to roughly $5,000 more per student, adjusted for inflation.
By Justo Robles
California, home to the nation’s largest immigrant population, officially became a sanctuary state in 2017, limiting the state’s cooperation with federal agents at a time when the Trump administration sought to crack down on undocumented communities. Under Gov. Gavin Newsom, California has maintained and, in some ways, expanded that status.
Soon after taking office in 2019, Newsom said “the one area that California should do more is on immigration policy.”
Four years later, California has expanded its health coverage for immigrants 50 and older. In January, all low-income undocumented people, regardless of age, will qualify for Medi-Cal. Already about a million undocumented Californians have drivers licenses, but recently those who don’t drive or can’t take the driver’s test were allowed to obtain a state ID.
Farmworkers involved in state investigations of wage theft and labor violations can qualify for free legal help. And immigrants who are victims of crimes or witnesses are encouraged to come forward without fear of being turned over to immigration authorities, thanks to a new law.
Newsom also signed a bill to remove the derogatory term “alien” used to describe non-citizens from the state code.
During this time, Florida has moved in the other direction under Gov. Ron DeSantis, who frequently calls migrants “aliens” and “illegals.”
In May, he signed what immigration experts have cataloged as one of the harshest state immigration laws in the country.
The law imposes stiffer penalties for businesses that hire unauthorized workers, makes it a felony to transport groups of undocumented immigrants into Florida, requires hospitals to record the immigration status of patients and invalidates driver’s licenses that other states including California issue to those without legal status.
The law also allocated $12 million to fund DeSantis’ controversial effort to transport migrants to sanctuary jurisdictions, such as California and Massachusetts.
In June, when Florida claimed responsibility for flying 36 migrants to Sacramento, Newsom suggested the operation may amount to kidnapping.
By Nigel Duara and Jeremia Kimelman
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis stood on a debate stage in Simi Valley this fall and said three people — or was it seven? — walked up and told him they were mugged in California, part of what he insists is a crime wave sweeping blue states.
Part of his pitch to be president is that his own state is a relative safe haven. “You look at cities around this country, they are awash in crime,” DeSantis said in his May campaign launch. “In Florida, our crime rate is at a 50-year low.”
Sure — but that figure relies on a bit of guesswork for more than one-third of the state’s population. And the data is more than two years old. And even that old data is still based on estimates for nearly one-quarter of the state.
The Marshall Project reported last month that Florida police agencies covering 40% of the state’s population don’t report their numbers to the FBI. Instead, the state takes the real numbers it has and estimates the rest based on population. That includes homicides – meaning that no one, including DeSantis, can say with complete accuracy how many people were killed in his state in 2022.
Or 2021, for that matter. Even two years after it collected crime data for its 2021 submission to the FBI, the state is still estimating crimes for 24.1% of the population.
That’s not the case in California — where law enforcement agencies also have a spotty record for reporting their crime statistics to the FBI. But California’s internal count at the state Justice Department provides a clear number: 2,206 homicides in 2022, 1,570 of them by guns.
In 2021, the last year for which Florida statistics are available, the statewide homicide rate was 6.7 per 100,000 people.
In California in 2021, it was 6 people per 100,000. In 2022, it was down to 5.7 per 100,000 people. The overall trend in California, however, was not good: Between 2017 and 2022, the homicide rate was up 24%.
In Florida, the same trend applies, albeit less dramatically: Between 2017 and 2021, the homicide rate went up 16%, from 6.4 per 100,000 people to 7.4.
(Editor's Note: An earlier headline indicated the debate was Wednesday. It is happening Thursday.)
CALmatters.org is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media venture explaining California policies and politics.
WATCH MORE: San Francisco Chronicle political columnist Emily Hoeven highlights the debate.
