MODESTO, Calif. — As Ernie Rios gathers his belongings in case first responders roll through his Modesto neighborhood ordering evacuations, his eyes are glued to the back window of his mobile home at the Terrace Mobile Home Park, watching the Tuolumne River.
"The real concern is my marks are all gone. They are about three feet farther out and covered right now," said Rios, while gesturing toward reference points along the swelling Tuolumne River right behind his mobile home. "And that just happened in the last couple of days... it's constantly going up."
For Rios and his neighbors, who all live near the 9th Street Bridge in Modesto, Thursday was spent making final preparations as forecasters expect the Tuolumne River to reach flood stage in the area by Saturday.
The Stanislaus County Office of Emergency Services issued an evacuation warning for the area Thursday afternoon.
"Hopefully, we don't get flooded out and it won't crest because there's a lot of people along the river that can get hurt," said Rios. "I'm ready just to drop and disconnect and go."
Hoping for the best but prepared for the worst describes Rios's state of mind as rain from the atmospheric river storm began falling Thursday afternoon. The same was true for 11-year mobile home park resident Adam Parnell.
"I've gotten my trailer as ready as it's going to be to pull out in case it starts to flood," said Parnell. "There were so many storms. We got close to flooding out in January and it's happening again and it's supposed to rain at least for two-plus weeks now."
Both Rios and Parnell remember when parts of the Terrace Mobile Home Park and neighboring Driftwood Mobile Home Park went underwater following a devastating storm in 2017.
After the previous flood, the two say they know when to leave and what to do if the Tuolumne River spills into their community.
"If (the river) gets beyond that certain mark, then I'm going to start honking the horn and waking people up," said Rios. "I stepped in last time and moved seven trailers out."
That type of help is what other mobile home park residents like Sheri Curtis might find themselves relying on. Curtis, who is disabled, says that while her car is packed and ready to leave, her mobile home is not because it requires a special hitch.
"How high it is, it's scary. And then all the snow that's being dumped up in the mountains is going to melt someday and come this way," said Curtis. "If there's anybody out there that can help with a truck and a fifth wheel that wants to help pull a couple of disabled ladies out before we float out."
While Rios and Parnell are prepared, residential flooding is a situation that officials with the Turlock Irrigation District (TID) are trying to avoid.
Wes Monier leads the hydrology team with TID which controls flows from the Don Pedro Reservoir into the Tuolumne River and Dry Creek.
"We have a requirement to keep the flows not to exceed elevation 55.0, which is about 11,000 cubic feet per second (CFS). We typically target 9,000 CFS and so coming into this rainstorm, they're forecasting flows on the order of 7,000. CFS." said Monier. "With everything that we have now, we don't see any issues. But let me be clear, the numbers we're seeing are very large coming down Dry Creek, this is not usual."
Monier says he and his team are receiving forecast updates every six hours and adjusting outflows from the reservoir accordingly.
"Be observant, be cognizant of what's going on," said Monier. "This is a very volatile environment, the forecasts that we're seeing are moving all over the place -- very large swings."
For Rios, being observant won't be a problem as danger approaches right in his backyard.
"I watch (the river) right out that back window right here. So middle of the night, I'll get up and I'll hit it with the light," said Rios. "Just be prepared. Get out and get the supplies you need now, don't wait."
Watch more from ABC10: California atmospheric river storm gains steam, bringing weather hazards to NorCal
