SACRAMENTO, Calif. — California’s primary election is Tuesday, March 5 and experts are predicting potentially record-breaking low voter turnout. It means your vote is, statistically, more important and impactful.
California has some 22 million registered voters. As of Wednesday, less than 10% of those voters had returned their ballot.
“That means that our turnout is probably likely to be around a third of voters actually returning these ballots or showing up at the polls by Election Day,” said Paul Mitchell, Vice President of Political Data Inc., a bipartisan voter data firm.
Mitchell says the current record for low voter turnout in a California presidential primary election is in 2012 when just 31% of registered voters cast a ballot. He says we could be on track to break the record.
“In a low turnout election, your vote matters even more because if a quarter of the electorate is voting, then your vote essentially counts almost like four votes, because the impact of it in an election — especially a close election — is magnified,” Mitchell said.
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The lack of voter enthusiasm in this presidential primary election is likely due to the fact a Biden-Trump rematch is all but official, Mitchell said. He encourages voters to consider their local races and what an impact one person’s vote can have on the outcomes.
“You might see races that are decided by razor-thin margins,” Mitchell said. “That means that, in some areas, you might see an outcome that you don't expect because some local community group turned out 400 people for a city council race and then the incumbent doesn't win. Things like that. Volatility happens when you have low turnout elections.”
Keep in mind, in a California primary election — unless one candidate gets more than half of the votes — the top two vote-getters regardless of party go on to the general election in November.
So which races might be close?
“There's a Sacramento Assembly race that is very, very close, with a lot of candidates running and where who makes it to the runoff is probably going to be decided in the hundreds-of-votes kind of range,” Mitchell said. “Sacramento mayor's race is incredibly close; two candidates are going to move on to the general election, and who those two candidates are is kind of a jump ball.”
He also highlighted a competitive State Senate race, “going from West Sacramento out to Sonoma County. That race is the former mayor of West Sacramento running against two candidates that are Democratic from the furthest ends of the district towards the west."
Down in the Stockton area and stretching into Contra Costa County, Mitchell said, “there's a State Senate district where former Congressman Jerry McNerney is running for the state senate to go serve in Sacramento, and that's capturing a lot of attention of voters. And again, it's a race where you have two Democrats, one Republican in the primary. My guess is that the Republican will make the runoff and it's just a matter of whoever is the top vote-getter among the Democrats will be the next State Senator, so it will be decided effectively in the primary.”
As for the U.S. Senate race, Mitchell said the primary plays an outsized role. The four front-runners are Democratic U.S. Representatives Barbara Lee, Katie Porter and Adam Schiff, and Republican Steve Garvey. That leaves the three Democrats fighting for a split Democratic vote, whereas Republicans will be more unified in voting for Garvey.
Mitchell says, at this point, Republicans account for a disproportionately high amount of the voter turnout so far.
“Because of the elevated Republican turnout, it's very likely or almost maybe guaranteed at this point that Steve Garvey is going to make the runoff, so it has a material effect — this primary and low turnout — on who makes it to the general,” Mitchell said. “If a voter is sitting at home and they say, ‘Well, the primary doesn't matter because I want to vote for Katie Porter in the general election,’ or, ‘I want to vote for Barbara Lee or Adam Schiff in the general election,’ the matter might be decided in the primary.”
Bottom line: don’t forget about that ballot sitting on your kitchen table because your vote matters in every election but, statistically, especially in this one.
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