Just about every college basketball coach will tell you winning in the NCAA tournament is heavily based on what type of matchup their team draws. Now that Selection Sunday has delivered yet another riveting unveiling of 68 teams, the Cinderellas, Final Four sleepers and title contenders can be sorted out based on the 2016 tourney's matchups.
While March is always wild and unpredictable, this season's madness started way earlier with a record number of top teams falling like flies. With that, why think the tournament would be normal madness? Here's a look at seven predictions that will shake up the bracket.
No team from the mighty Big 12 reaches the Final Four
In a season in which the Big 12 has been the clear-cut toughest conference in the country and Kansas has emerged as the top overall seed in the whole tournament, it would almost be bizarre to not see a team from the Big 12 in Houston come April. But it's not as though the Jayhawks, No. 2 seed Oklahoma, No. 3 seed West Virginia, No. 4 seed Iowa State, No. 5 seed Baylor, No. 6 seed Texas and No. 8 seed Texas Tech have an easy path. Bill Self's team could run into a surging UConn team as early as the first weekend in the South Region. And while Buddy Hield's Sooners do have the moxie to get past top-seeded Oregon or anyone in the West, OU has proven to be extremely vulnerable when it's not shooting the ball well from beyond the arc. The conference didn't fare too well in last year's tournament, either, as both Iowa State and Baylor got stunned in the opening round by mid-major Cinderellas.
Three of four No. 12 seeds pull off upsets
The No. 12 seed>No. 5 seed upset is the most probable and popular pick on a yearly basis so perhaps this isn't that bold. However, no matter how much it's picked or forecasted, the shock factor always arrives. In the West Region, Ivy League champion Yale takes on Baylor. The Bears will be ready after getting upset by Georgia State in the opening round last year. No matter. Yale hasn't been in the Big Dance since 1962 and has Cinderella written all over it behind versatile forward Justin Sears.
In the East, Southern champ Chattanooga squares off against Big Ten regular-season champion Indiana. The Hoosiers have come on strong late in the season behind lightning quick point guard Yogi Ferrell. Yet the Mocs have what it takes to beat Indiana, which just lost to bubble team Michigan in the Big Ten tourney. This, unfortunately, would ruin a potential Indiana-Kentucky meeting in the round of 32. Sorry. And in the Midwest Region, Little Rock-Arkansas has the Cinderella ingredients to stun another Big Ten team in Purdue. The Boilermakers looked impressive in the Big Ten final against Michigan State, but they've been known to lack an edge throughout the season. The Trojans, who beat Tulsa and San Diego State this season, certainly won't be lacking any type of fire as a mid-major with a chip on its shoulder.
No. 11 seeds Wichita State, Northern Iowa and Gonzaga reach the Sweet 16
The selection committee sent a not-so-nice message to mid-major bubble teams with their selections that essentially said their criteria outside of a conference tournament title wasn't enough to get into the NCAAs. That left Monmouth, St. Mary's, Valparaiso and San Diego State outside of the field. Wichita State was the only mid-major to notch an at-large bid, while Northern Iowa captured the Missouri Valley's auto bid. And Gonzaga likely would have missed the cut had it not ousted St. Mary's in the West Coast tournament final.
All three of these No. 11 seeds have open paths to reach the Sweet 16. The Shockers have a very winnable play-in game against Vanderbilt. Then they'd face Arizona and likely Miami. Two tough teams, but two winnable games when you have perhaps the best backcourt in the country in Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker. Northern Iowa plays Texas in the opening round and then would likely need to beat Texas A&M to reach the second weekend. Considering how hot the Panthers are — they've won 12 of 13 — it's surely possible. As for Gonzaga, this was a preseason Final Four team for some experts with Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis in the frontcourt. The 'Zags will get an opportunity to make up for an underachieving season against a red-hot Seton Hall team and then likely Utah in the round of 32 if they won.
Three times won't be a charm for Virginia against Michigan State
These two teams have met each other in the past two NCAA tournaments, first in the Sweet 16 in 2014 and last year in the round of 32. Both times, Virginia was a higher seed projected to win but ultimately fell to Michigan State. The committee surely wanted another rematch here, with both teams in the Midwest. The Cavaliers will have the higher seed again but it's not completely safe to say they're the favorite because the Spartans arguably deserved a No. 1 seed themselves after winning the Big Ten tournament, whereas UVa finished second to North Carolina in both the ACC regular season and tournament. Regardless, it's difficult to see these teams not meeting each other in the Elite Eight based on how great they've been playing. And it's also difficult to imagine Tony Bennett's team getting the best of Tom Izzo's when the Spartans are a title favorite to many and have National Player of the Year Denzel Valentine on their roster.
Only one No. 1 seed reaches the Elite Eight
Yes, that's right. Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia and Oregon all could fall before the Elite Eight, which means that a much higher seed will have to knock them off. One of these teams should get there, but three of them not is completely feasible.
► In the South, KU could lose to UConn in the second round or to either Maryland or Cal in the Sweet 16.
► In the West, Oregon could get upset by St. Joseph's or Cincinnati in the second round or a dangerous Duke team led by All-American Grayson Allen in the Sweet 16.
► In the East, North Carolina could get upset by a Providence team that features lethal offensive players Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil in the first round. Or the Tar Heels could fall to Kentucky in the Sweet 16.
► In the Midwest, Virginia could lose to Texas Tech or Butler in the second round. Or an underachieving Iowa State team that puts it together in the Sweet 16.
Maryland, yes Maryland, goes to the Final Four
If there was an underachievement award this season, the Terrapins would undoubtedly win. They were given an always dangerous No. 5 seed by the committee for their mediocre résumé with the best win coming against Purdue. On paper, Maryland has the most complete starting lineup in the country. Melo Trimble and Jake Layman are great in the backcourt, freshman star Diamond Stone plays older than he is and the team's best players, on many nights, were transfers Rasheed Sulaimon (Duke) and Robert Carter (Georgia Tech).
Of all the No. 12 seeds, South Dakota State seems the most unlikely to pull off an upset. So the path will be there, but Mark Turgeon's group will have to beat good teams to get to Houston — odds are Kansas and Villanova will stand in the way in the South Region. It's tough to foresee them doing that, but the talent is there and there have been flashes of how good the 'Terps can be. Some teams peak heading into the NCAA tournament. Some teams blossom right as the tournament begins. That could be Maryland.
Kentucky annoyingly wins it all
The Wildcats had the perfect team last season, entering the NCAA tournament 34-0 and chasing the first undefeated season since 1976. But Wisconsin stunned Kentucky in the Final Four and busted brackets everywhere — showing the cold reality that the single-elimination NCAA tournament isn't kind to even the most dominant of teams. So how outrageous would it be if John Calipari's far-less talented Wildcats won the national championship in 2016? Wouldn't that be wild? It's actually not that far off.
UK is hitting its stride and just won the SEC tournament title against a vastly underrated Texas A&M team. Tyler Ulis (30 points against A&M in title game) is arguably the best player in the country and, meshed with explosive guard Jamal Murray, Kentucky has a backcourt far superior to Andrew and Aaron Harrison. The frontcourt is unspectacular but there's depth and plenty of weaponry to cut down the nets in Houston.
ALL 68 NCAA TOURNAMENT TEAMS
