ST. LOUIS — Every year, a handful of teams come to the NCAA tournament with a plan for how to spring the biggest upset in the history of the tournament. All of them believe in it, dutifully, faithfully, because this is March and crazy things will continue to happen as long as they put 68 basketball teams in a single-elimination event.
But every blueprint for how to take down a monster requires more than irrational confidence. Talking about taking away a certain cut or guarding a particular screen or limiting transition opportunities is one thing; it’s the doing that usually sends teams like Middle Tennessee State home.
For a glorious two hours at Scottrade Center, however, a team nobody expected to last very long just kept going and going, all the way to a 90-81 victory against Michigan State that will debated for years as arguably the most stunning result this tournament has ever seen.
It wasn’t the elusive 16-over-1, which has still never happened, but it might as well have been.
“If you believe in Vegas odds, they were the second favorite to win it all,” Middle Tennessee athletics director Chris Massaro said. “That's a team that wins in March. That’s the biggest win we’ve ever had. We took down Goliath.”
Each of the eight No. 15 seeds that have beaten a No. 2 is surprising in its own way; some of them less so in retrospect. Santa Clara had Steve Nash when it took out Arizona in 1993. The Missouri team that lost to Norfolk State in 2012 was small and defensively flawed. Georgetown’s loss to Florida Gulf Coast merely continued a trend of underperformance in NCAA tournament games against low seeds. Even the Duke team that lost to Lehigh in 2012 was considered a regular-season overachiever that didn’t seem likely to contend for a national championship.
Which makes what happened here all the more remarkable.
This was Michigan State, a team that was arguably as accomplished and formidable as any of the No. 1 seeds. This was Tom Izzo, a coach who has been impervious to true shockers in the NCAA tournament. And this was a team with Denzel Valentine, a senior and consensus All-American who has been one of the biggest success stories in Michigan State’s storied history of player development.
Middle Tennessee, which got into the tournament by virtue of a two-point win against Old Dominion for the Conference USA title, might have believed it could win this game because that’s what teams are supposed to do. But rationally, there was nothing to suggest it would actually happen.
“Everybody I know was telling us Michigan State was going to beat us,” said Allesia Lindsey, the mother of reserve guard Aldonis Foote. “But I thought they could do it. Michigan State is just the name of a school, just like MTSU.”
And somehow, after a surreal 40-minute effort in which it led from start-to-finish and withstood every desperate punch, the latter is still playing.
Middle Tennessee might not have been what anyone expected, including Michigan State, but don’t call it a fluke. The Blue Raiders executed their defensive game plan and came up with a near-flawless offensive effort, making 11 of 19 from the three-point line, creating second-chance opportunities with ridiculous hustle and staying aggressive even when the game got tight.
“When we come out hitting shots, we’re hard to beat,” guard Jaqawn Raymond said. “It carried over and carried over into the second half. We withstood some runs, but we stayed true to ourselves.”
Raymond, an N.C. State transfer who averages just 5 points, typified the kind of performance that made this possible. Though Middle Tennessee spurted out to a 15-2 lead, it had to withstand wave after wave of Michigan State shotmaking.
As expected from a team as complete and well-coached as the Spartans, Tom Izzo adjusted to the Blue Raiders’ changing defenses and ability to switch every screen, eventually getting one-on-one matchups in the post that led to layups or kickouts for wide open three-pointers.
But every time Michigan State put the pressure on, Middle Tennessee came up with a key shot. When Raymond hit a difficult up-and-under, reverse layup off a scramble play with 4:47 remaining to give the Blue Raiders a 77-71 lead after the Spartans again crept closer, it was perhaps the biggest signal of all that they weren’t going to stop making shots.
“Coach always tells him, ‘Don’t shoot crazy shots like that,’ ” said guard Giddy Potts, who had 19 points and five rebounds. “But i think that was the biggest shot in the game. We just kept being confident. We beat them bad on 50-50 balls and made shots in the paint. We made shots at the right time, got stops at the right time and won the game.”
Michigan State made one final run to get within 77-76 with 3:34 left, but it was hard to tell the No. 2 seed from the No. 15 after that. Michigan State missed two three-pointers and a front-end free throw and committed two turnovers over the next 2:35 as the Blue Raiders’ celebration began.
Even Valentine, who has been so clutch all season, could not rescue Michigan State in the final moments, shooting 5-for-13 with 12 assists but also six turnovers.
“It was probably the only team all year that went from 1-3-1 to 2-3 to man,” Valentine said. “And I was frustrated. … I didn’t come through today, and I’ll remember that for the rest of my life.”
Disrupting Valentine with constant switches — something the Blue Raiders can do because of their bevy of rangy, interchangeable guards and wings — was part of the plan Middle Tennessee coach Kermit Davis hoped would come to fruition against Michigan State.
What he couldn’t have foresee was the 15-2 start and the way his team would react down the stretch, trying to hold onto a lead against a team that traditionally doesn’t make too many mistakes under tournament pressure.
But after 14 seasons at Middle Tennessee, which included consistent success but never a big postseason breakthrough, it was simply their time. And now, with a winnable Round of 32 matchup against No. 10 seed Syracuse looming Sunday, it might not be over anytime soon.
“I’ve been around these guys all year, we’ve gone through injuries and different things and they’ve been consistent and poised,” Davis said. “You see these guys and our size, they’re so interchangeable. They can all make a three, drive the ball, skilled off the dribble. That’s a hard matchup for a lot of people. So we felt comfortable, we felt confident. With about 3 1/2 minutes left, we looked at each other and said, ‘Let’s enjoy this. Let’s have fun right here.’ ”
Still, in a moment where so many underdogs melt, Middle Tennessee thrived. And with each basket down the stretch — the Blue Raiders shot 56.7% in the second half — it seemed the Spartans were a little more stunned at what was happening.
“I’ll be honest with you, in my wildest dreams I didn’t think they’d hit some of the shots they hit,” Izzo said. “The good news is we got beat by a team that played better than us today. There were no bad calls, no goaltending at the end. Nobody missed a free throw that would have saved the day. We just kind of got beat.”
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