SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY, Calif. — As control over the U.S. House of Representatives hangs in the balance, two of the nation’s closest House races are unfolding in California’s 9th and 13th Congressional Districts.
These races, both still too close to call, could be pivotal in determining which party gains control.
With millions of votes yet to be counted across California, including an estimated 100,000 in these two key districts alone, the state’s painstaking ballot-counting process means it could be days — or even weeks — before results are finalized.
In the 9th District, incumbent Democrat Josh Harder is facing a tight challenge from Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln. This race appears much closer than Harder’s decisive victory in 2022 over San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti.
Meanwhile, the 13th District rematch between Republican John Duarte and Democrat Adam Gray is shaping up to be one of the closest races nationwide, echoing their previous contest, which wasn’t confirmed until Dec. 2 in the last election cycle.
Paul Mitchell of Political Data Inc., a California election analyst, notes that early results are heavily influenced by same-day votes, which tend to skew Republican.
However, outstanding mail-in ballots — many cast by younger and minority voters — could shift the balance in favor of Democratic candidates.
“In the five or so races where they’re trying to pick up a seat, they are razor-thin,” Mitchell said. “And in some races where they didn’t expect tight contests, they’re seeing very close numbers.”
Adding to the delay is California’s ballot-curing process, which aims to ensure all eligible votes are counted.
Thousands of ballots with signature issues require verification, or “curing,” to count.
Mitchell estimates that 60,000 ballots statewide are in need of signature verification, with a quarter of those belonging to voters aged 18 to 29.
Given California’s methodical approach to counting ballots, voters will likely need patience as results continue to roll in.
San Joaquin County, which encompasses the majority of the 9th District, expects to release an update on Friday.
Stanislaus County, responsible for parts of the 13th District, plans to provide updates every Tuesday and Thursday evening until the count concludes.
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