SACRAMENTO, Calif. — In the race for Sacramento mayor, currently Assemblymember Kevin McCarty’s lead over public health professional Dr. Flojaune “Flo” Cofer has continued to narrow, but he remains 3,159 votes ahead of his opponent. Cofer trails 1.7%.
It's the total so far from the latest update of ballot counts published by Sacramento County Tuesday afternoon.
McCarty now has 50.86% of the vote (93,526 votes). Prior to Tuesday’s update, he had 51.2% (89,191 votes). Cofer now has 49.14% of the vote (90,367 votes). The last update, Tuesday, had her at 48.8% (85,024 votes).
At this point, 197,920 ballots have been counted in this race, representing 70.49% of the 280,776 registered voters within Sacramento city limits (that includes voters who either skipped the Sacramento mayoral race on their ballot or picked both candidates, thus invalidating their vote for mayor).
The race has grown closer with each update of the ballot count, but does a path to victory for Cofer exist at this point or will McCarty's lead hold?
Paul Mitchell of Political Data Inc. told ABC10 he estimates only a few-thousand ballots remain to be counted and believes the numbers show McCarty will win.
"At this rate, she'd have to win 75% of the remaining ballots in order to win, and that's just not feasible, Mitchell said. "She's been, at the high, receiving about 56% of the vote in these latest drops, and so, you know, unfortunately, I don't think she's going to get over that 50%. Kevin McCarty will be the next mayor."
ABC10 reached out to both campaigns for reaction to Tuesday’s numbers.
McCarty's campaign told ABC10 they do not plan on issuing any statement at the moment.
Cofer Campaign Spokesperson Jeff Rousset told ABC10, "We're closing the gap. This is a very close race with thousands of ballots left to count. We look forward to watching the rest of the vote count unfold."
Cofer has been narrowing McCarty’s lead with every update of results. The morning after Election Night – on Nov. 6 - 10.4% of the vote separated the two candidates. The Nov. 8 update saw that gap narrow to 8.1%. As of Nov. 12, 5.6% of the vote separated them. After Friday’s update, 2.4% of the vote separates them.
Now, 1.7% of the vote separates them.
"Kevin McCarty is seen as the establishment candidate in an election cycle where voters clearly are not happy with the direction of the country, of the state, of the city, and there's been a lot of consternation, particularly around the homelessness issue, which was the number one issue in this race," Mitchell said. "I think a lot of voters who were voting for Cofer were saying, 'I'm willing to risk in order to maybe get some change.' And so I think that has led to her really strong result in a first-time candidate. So I think that's also something that's interesting. She's somebody who really has made a mark in a short amount of time."
Mitchell conducted a poll on this race the weekend before Election Day and found voters' top issue was homelessness.
"I think this is going to be a challenge for whoever is the next mayor, as it has been for the current Mayor, Darrell Steinberg," Mitchell said, adding. "The second issue was health care and then third was the economy."
The next updated ballot count is due late in the afternoon of Fri., Nov. 22.
The county has until Dec. 5 to certify final, official results.
The new mayor and two new city councilmembers will be sworn in at the Sacramento City Council’s Dec. 10 meeting.
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