I know stating something positive about the drought will be rage-inducing for some, but bear with me.
When this drought ends, as they all have in the past, some long term beneficial things are happening right now to better prepare us for the next multi-year drought.
1. Education - I am knee deep in weather, climate, environmental stories and discussions every day. I have been doing this for some time and I always learn something new. However, I have learned more about water, drought cycles, and some aspects of California history during this drought than at any other time than I can remember. There are so many great and resourceful journalists and articles that are diving deep into the California drought and all sorts of information is coming to light.
We now have better answers to the assumptions of who uses more water, Northern California or Southern California (answer: Per person Northern Californians use more in general, but some areas near Palm Springs and San Diego are heavy users). We are looking at dams, groundwater, salmon runs, and conservation with a different set of eyes now. The fact is, when we have enough water, nobody cares about water rights, and the efficiency of the system we have set up. I think we can all say we know much more about how water is collected and moves through the state than we did a few years ago. Having more and better information and facts sets us up for a better discussion in the future.
2. Conservation - Desperate times call for desperate measures and for many of us we are finally looking at water conservation in an entirely new way. Because of this drought, many permanent changes to water use will be put in place that will last well after this drought is over.
Let's go back to the energy crisis in California in the 1990s. Many programs to increase efficiency were put into place, that we are living with now. Do you remember getting the first squiggly CFL bulbs? My family got a few and we STILL have them. That's well over two decades of energy savings and cost savings. The energy crisis is long gone but our mindset changed years ago and we are still on that path. In this water crisis, many new things like low flow toilets, shower heads, drip irrigation, limited outdoor watering, grey water systems, groundwater monitoring and reporting and other efforts will be fast-tracked and implemented even if the rain comes back next year. These are passive simple ways to save water and this benefits all of us.
3. Efforts on medium and long range forecasting - It seems like every week we are learning about a new way, or method to give us a hint what may becoming past the 10 day forecast. Theses medium and long range forecasts can give hope to us all, and help people manage water more efficiently. This year acronyms such as: SST, MJO, AGW, PDO,and ENSO that have been making the rounds in academic circles for years, are now becoming mainstream.
SST - Sea Surface Temperatures may have a big hand in the lack of snow this year for the West as well as overall record warm for the state between January and March.
MJO- Madden-Julian Oscillation has been very helpful giving us a first look that April would be wetter and somewhat cooler than Jan-March with a few weeks notice. It also helped give a first glace that a key component to El Nino would be kicking off.
AGW - Anthropogenic (human caused) global warming is indicating that droughts like the one we are in may become more frequent and long lasting.
PDO - Pacific Decadal Oscillation is when the Pacific as a whole becomes warmer or colder than average for 20-30 years this may explain the warm temps off the coast now and other changes around the globe.
ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation which is a favorite of mine. Some of the biggest weather years for California have been during a strong El Nino in 1982-83 and 1997-98. Could we have another strong El Nino soon?
Highlighting these obscure teleconnections has been popular during the drought because we all want to look ahead to the moment, and pattern that could turn things around. What we are learning is that several of these factors may be working together, or against each other at the same time. This makes teleconnections a hot topic in the weather world, target of research money, and something that more people are learning about.
4. Building a Framework for the future - I'm a sixth-generation Californian, and my daughter is seventh generation and what happens in California and to California matters to me. There is no denying that we have outgrown our current water supply, and delivery system. We will be making choices in the next several years about how California will look and operate in the future.
The trend is for hotter years, and bigger gaps between wet years. How do we want the state to grow, and maintain a high quality of life for everybody? From Silicon Valley, to the fertile Central Valley everybody has a stake and a say on what matters in the future of California and I think we all realize that this is a discussion that is long overdue. Everybody must make compromises to keep California's precious water flowing in a smart and sustainable way and decisions to make that happen are being made right now. It's a difficult but important time in our State's history but it could set up California on more solid footing for the years ahead.
