CALIFORNIA, USA — The rainy season has been off to a slow start for rain and snow and the snowpack is suffering. As of Friday the snowpack for the northern and central Sierra is less than 40% of the average and for the southern section, it's less than 20%.
For a solid change in the snowpack, you need two things. Storms and colder air need to come together to produce the snow that the Sierra depends on for recreation and future water.
This season has seen a lack of both storms and colder air. The new wet pattern will arrive Monday of this upcoming week if not the evening between Sunday to Monday and will bring plenty of rain to the regions. The system however will be moving into a mild environment and will have to pull in colder air to drop the snow levels from their initial high level around 8,000 feet and above most of the well-traveled passes.
Many resorts have a base level where guest services and parking is located and they may encounter rain for the first several days of this pattern. However, for many resorts at their mid-elevation and at their summits, they will be getting snow earlier and that will help snowpack at higher elevations.
The range of snow totals has varied quite a bit for forecasting day to day ahead of this stormy pattern but as of Friday it is looking more likely to be on the lower end and some passes may only get a few inches of snow because most of it will be rain.
This may help some travel in the Sierra as drivers are more familiar with driving in rain, however, the draw of fresh snow ahead of Christmas and New Year's is always top of mind.
For areas above 8,000 feet there will be a better chance for snow and snow totals have varied but could be a foot or more.
The key to this particular forecast is to watch for trends and changes over the weekend and if this system can pull in colder air earlier. If that can happen the totals and snow level will be very different.
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