Every tropical system is unique and has it's own signature threats, but Hurricane Florence is setting up to be a big storm with potential for major issues that could set it apart for the region.
Here are my thoughts:
- We just don't see hurricanes this strong this far north in the Atlantic. Almost all stronger storms form near the equator, then stay south or rapidly curve north, then back out to sea. This storm has a unique path sending it into the Carolinas with almost no chance of it falling apart or changing course. This storm is very likely to hit the Carolinas, and Virginia, and everybody needs to act like it will.
- Forecasting has come a long way. Back in the day, the forecast cone would widen out by a large margin the farther out the forecast went. Now, that cone is pretty small, so we have a really good idea where the eyewall will go. This is super helpful to determine wind damage, and storm surge, but to the public it has a negative effect. Most people think the entire storm fits in that cone and that is not the case. That's just the center. This storm should be large, with flooding rain and problems extending far from the center. People from Florida to Delaware need to watch this storm.
- It's more than a direct hit. After the eyewall moves over land, and the winds slow down, the storm stalls and this is the biggest problem. The major problem with Hurricane Harvey was that it stalled for days and while it was "only" a tropical storm for much of it, the sustained heavy rain is what caused the flooding and deaths and damage, not really the wind. This has potential to drop 10-20 inches of rain in a place that can't handle it, so flooding is very likely and expected
- This is a bad time of year for a storm. People are busy in September, school is back in session, people are going to football games, living life back in a pattern and it's really hard to drop all that for an evacuation. This is falling closer to a weekend so it's possible many in region will "wait it out" most of this week until the last minute, only to find the roads are clogged and there are no more supplies. Trust me, the mental gymnastics to internally downplay this storm are huge and many people are going to realize too late that there isn't enough time to get out without major problems.
- The mountains to the west will keep the water high for a long time. The Piedmont Foothills and mountains nearby will extract more rain and it takes longer for it to eventually flow out to sea. This will keep flooded area hard to reach for days and maybe a week or longer so the aftermath will be difficult if this storm stays on track
Meteorologists try not to sound the alarm too often or too loud unless they have to and this is one of those storms. It all looks bad, and not changing, so let family and friends in the area know this is a serious and dangerous storm.
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