SACRAMENTO, Calif. — One of the hallmark passages of time in the weather world is the circulation of the latest edition of the Farmers' Almanac. It often appears in newsrooms around the country and everybody wants to know the upcoming winter's forecast.
For the 2019-20 winter season, the Almanac's out look for the west coast is "cool, normal precipitation."
The authors have been putting out this book since 1792 and mainly focused on sunspots for guidance in seasonal forecasts. They claim they have since added modern meteorology and climatology, as well, to refine their proprietary forecast.
However, they don't reveal or share their method, only the results. They've also claimed via self verification that they are 80 percent accurate year after year.
There is one major problem with this, that I see at least, and that's accuracy is in the eye of the beholder. The writers of the Farmer's Almanac use words like "brisk, frosty, wet, white, frigid" and others for broad generalized weather conditions.
"Brisk and Wet" can mean windy, cold, wetter than average, but again, we don't know. These terms and verification can be hard to quantify.
You also see broad regions lumped together. Arizona has massive elevation changes, yet was all set to have a "snowy winter in 2018-19."
It's tough to square.
I don't doubt the sincere effort to inform the customer of the upcoming seasonal forecast by the good people at the Farmers' Almanac, it's just really difficult to get fully invested in the product when I don't know how it comes together, and how they are verifying broad regions with two words to describe months of weather changes and patterns.
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